Step Three: Apply the Formula and Create a Fantasy Number
The formulas from the previous step are just one way of determining your fantasy baseball rankings. But . . . if you had used this formula at the beginning of 2007 using the previous year’s stats, you might have been able to spot the first and second round potential of players like Jimmy Rollins, Eric Byrnes, and Brandon Phillips, none of whom were ranked as highly as they eventually finished.
If we apply this formula to 2007 statistics, you’ll see high Fantasy Numbers for some obvious superstars like Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Grady Sizemore, the aforementioned Rollins, Byrnes, and Phillips, and the usual array of power hitters and speedsters.
If we look closer, though, we’ll also see high rankings for some new players like Ryan Braun, Chris Young, Corey Hart, B.J. Upton, Curtis Granderson, and Shane Victorino. These guys won’t necessarily be sleepers, but their strong Fantasy Numbers indicate that they might be ones you want to target a round or two ahead of their expected draft ranking.
When looking at pitchers, since we are using a straightforward statistic—strikeouts per innings pitched—there are no surprises. Pitchers like Johan Santana and Jake Peavy are at the top. What becomes evident when ranking pitchers this way, though, is that certain groups of pitchers have similar potential, at least in terms of fantasy baseball statistics.
Santana and Peavy certainly had similar potential (to each win the Cy Young Award). And yet, for the 2007 season, Santana was projected as a first round pick, if not a number one pick, while Peavy was slated for the fourth round in many drafts. This was because Peavy suffered an unusually low number of wins and an accidentally high ERA and WHIP.
Had you blocked out those stats and focused on K/IP, you’d see that the best strategy would have been to pass on Santana and steal Peavy in a later round. Using Fantasy Numbers in this way to compare players and evaluate their draft rankings applies to several starting pitchers and hitters.
To read more on this topic, read “One Question You Must Ask Yourself Before Every Pick.” Also see the Fantasy Baseball Champ's 2008 Player Rankings.
To continue with your draft preparation, read . . .
Step Four: Combine Your Lists and Evaluate Your Results »
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