Should I Pick a Fantasy Baseball Player on Steroids?
January 5, 2008 (UPDATED November 5, 2008)
First things first, as we evaluate the Mitchell Report and what it means for fantasy baseball, let me say that one of the big winners, if you can call him that, is Brian Roberts, all-star second baseman for the Baltimore Orioles.
When the report came out, plenty of pundits weighed in on the flimsy evidence, pointing to Roberts' case in particular. Such hearsay, they said. One player submits testimony that Roberts used steroids one time and that gets included in the report?
What came next was brilliant by Roberts. Four days after the report, he broke his silence. Yes, the report is true, he said. I did use steroids. Just once. Back in 2003. Never again.
Quite a tactical maneuver on Roberts part. When everyone expects you to deny it, turn it around and admit guilt. After all, the report only has you down as using it once. And let's face it, he's probably not going to get punished.
A skeptic might say (sarcastically), well, I'm sure Roberts didn't use anything in 2005, when he quadrupled his previous year's home run total and raised his average by more than 40 points. Maybe it was just that age 27 peak year thing.
One thing is for sure, Roberts is now an all-star and a high fantasy baseball pick. So getting back to the question posed in the headline, should you pick a player who's allegedly using steroids or has used it in the past? I would say that the short answer is yes. If you know that a player might go Canseco on the ball day in and day out, why in the world wouldn't you draft him?
Eric Gagne, a former fifth starter on the verge of getting cut who became the game's most dominant reliever, was a great pick when he had supernatural strength. Miguel Tejada, beloved shortstop who didn't disappoint his new team in 2004 by hitting 150 RBI that year, was an awesome pick, most especially before Rafael Palmeiro outed him.
So yes, when a player's at his peak and then some, that's the time to draft him.
But what about now? Should you take Gagne or Tejada, based on the allegations? If you're the Brewers or Astros, you give $10 million to the first one and trade your team away for the latter.
But seriously, what about people with some brains, i.e. fantasy baseball owners? The answer for them is no, now is not the time to take these once bright stars. Not when they're on the downfall.
That raises a tricky question, though. How do you know if a player is possibly on a withdrawal-induced decline? The fact is, you don't. Just as you don't know when a player is possibly on a performance-enhanced rise.
So to answer the original question, yes, you should draft a player on steroids. The problem is that 99% of us will never know if most players are juiced or not, short of inside knowledge or special intuition. In that sense, we're back to square one, evaluating a player based solely on his statistics and observation. See Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy.
Finally, for those who would have a moral problem selecting a player on steroids, just remember this. None of these guys are angels. They're best admired as heroes from afar. If you're selecting only the well-behaved, you'll have an awfully small team.
UPDATE - November 5, 2008 - We'll take Brian Roberts at his word that he used steroids only once way back when and attribute his further decline in home runs, down to single digits in 2008, to his age (he turned 31, when statisticians say a baseball player's performance goes down).
There is no such leniancy for Eric Gagne. He was not worth much in 2008, certainly not worth $10 million. Presumably off the juice, he managed a 5.47 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP, losing his closer role along the way. Nor is there much fantasy forgiveness for Miguel Tejada, whose home run total dropped to 13, after having totals of 34, 26, 24, 18 from 2004-2007. (It's worth noting that Tejada's decline began with what we now know to be his age 31 season.)
So whether it's due to age or a steroids stoppage, a player's potential decline should set off warning signals when preparing for your draft.
|