One Question You Must Ask Yourself Before Every Pick
December 19, 2009
If you want to maximize your draft and pick the best team possible, then there’s one question you should ask yourself before every pick. You can practice this during your fantasy baseball mock draft (remember to practice the mock draft on your own).
The question is, when you’re about to pick a player: “Is there a player of equal value still available in the draft and, if so, what round is that player expected to be drafted?” Okay, so that’s two questions in one. But that makes it doubly important.
If the answer to the question is yes, then you have to figure out which round that player is expected to be drafted in. If it is two or more rounds later, then you should seriously consider not drafting the player you have in mind and holding off for the latter player.
For example, in last year's draft, one could argue that Hunter Pence was a decent pick for a team's second or third outfielder. The previous year, in 2008, his second full season with the Astros, Pence hit .269 with 25 HR, 78 R, 83 RBI, and 11 SB.
Given that many people thought highly of Pence's upside, his average draft position (ADP) was 80, according to Fantasy Baseball Cafe.
Here's the problem with that pick. Jayson Werth had very comporable numbers in 2008. He hit .273, 24 HR, 73 R, 67 RBI, and 20 SB. And yet his ADP was 140, a full five rounds after Pence was picked in most drafts. Seemingly, the only difference was that people thought Pence had more potential because of his age, even though Werth was still in his 20s, albeit his late 20s. Werth had been in the majors a lot longer, but was never given a chance to play a full season before then.
As it turned out, Werth had the better season in 2009, hitting 11 more homers than Pence, and stealing six more bases.
So, before overreaching for that hot new star, ask yourself the essential fantasy baseball draft question. You'll be glad you did.
|