Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants
Along with fellow starter Matt Cain, fireballer Lincecum will be a bright spot for the Giants in the post-Bonds era. Much hyped last year for his high-90s fastball, Lincecum lived up to the billing for the most part.
He struck out more than one batter per inning (150 K in 146.1 IP) and kept his WHIP to a reasonable 1.28. On top of that, the baby-faced killer in the 5-foot-11-inch (?), 160-lb. frame, thrilled fans by hitting the upper 90s on the radar gun throughout the season. Of course, the Giants disappointed in numerous other ways in 2007, but that is not Lincecum’s fault.
As a rookie, when Lincecum fell into trouble he often had trouble settling down and trusting his repertoire of pitches. More specifically, he fared much worse against a lineup when it was his second time facing them in a game.
In most innings, Lincecum held the opposition to a batting average of .207 or below. But in the fourth inning, opposing batters hit him at a rate of .337, often waiting to belt the high heat. Concurrently, in their second plate appearance in a game against Lincecum, hitters batted .285 against him, as compared to .178 in their first plate appearance and .222 in their third.
The drop in average for the third plate appearance can be attributed to Lincecum getting in a groove and becoming more comfortable in the game. With his rookie season out of the way, Lincecum will only get better.
Bottom line: Look out for big strikeout numbers in Lincecum's second season, even without a big win total.
Projection: 170 IP, 10-8, 184 K, 3.55 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
|